Trump Trade Reverses

Since the election, stocks have performed very well, while bonds yields have risen. This was due to expected policy changes under the Trump administration which would boost economic growth. Stronger growth is good for the economy and for stocks, but it raises the outlook for future inflation, which is negative for mortgage rates. Over the past week, President Trump encountered resistance to a health care bill. This increased investor concerns about the ease with which Trump will be able to deliver his pro-growth policy changes in areas such as tax cuts, deregulation, and infrastructure spending. As investors questioned whether the policies might be smaller in scale or might take longer to implement, some of the “Trump Trade” reversed this week, which was good for mortgage rates.