Trump Trade Reverses

2018-01-02T18:42:32+00:00 March 28th, 2017|Categories: Uncategorized|Tags: , , , , , |

Since the election, stocks have performed very well, while bonds yields have risen. This was due to expected policy changes under the Trump administration which would boost economic growth. Stronger growth is good for the economy and for stocks, but it raises the outlook for future inflation, which is negative for mortgage rates. Over the past week, President Trump encountered resistance to a health care bill. This increased investor concerns about the ease with which Trump will be able to deliver his pro-growth policy changes in areas such as tax cuts, deregulation, and infrastructure spending. As investors questioned whether the policies might be smaller in scale or might take longer to implement, some of the "Trump Trade" reversed this week, which was good for mortgage rates.

Yellen’s High-Pressure Economy

2018-01-02T18:44:57+00:00 October 14th, 2016|Categories: Uncategorized|

In a speech this afternoon, Fed Chair Yellen surprised investors with a potential new twist on U.S. monetary policy. Yellen put forth the possibility that a “high-pressure economy may be the best approach to repair the damage done during the financial crisis. This would involve waiting longer in the business cycle than in the past to raise the federal funds rate. She acknowledged that this approach would run the risk of inflation rising above their 2% target level. Some of the hoped for goals of this twist for longer loose monetary policy would be to encourage business investment and to increase the number of workers who return to the labor force. The possibility of Fed policy which tolerates higher inflation caused long-term bond yields, including MBS, to rise.

ECB Comments Hurt MBS

2018-01-02T18:45:18+00:00 October 5th, 2016|Categories: Uncategorized|

Comments from an unnamed official at the European Central Bank (ECB) caused global bond yields to rise today, including U.S. MBS. The official said that a “consensus was being formed to gradually taper the ECB’s bond buying program when they decide that it’s time to conclude it. The plan would be similar to what the U.S. Fed did to end its bond buying program. The ECB’s program is currently set to expire in March 2017. At the last meeting in September, some investors were disappointed that the ECB did not announce an extension to the program. According to the ECB, the decision about when to end the program will depend on the performance of the economy. The next ECB meeting will take place on October 20. The added demand for bonds from central banks around the world has helped push down yields. Today’s comments caused investors to reduce their expectations for additional stimulus from the ECB, which was negative for both stocks and bonds. Wednesday October 5, 2016

Blog Talk Radio Show Summary August 23, 2010: Winning Strategies for Mortgage/Real Estate Teams

2017-12-20T17:34:15+00:00 August 30th, 2010|Categories: BlogTalkRadio Podcasts, Uncategorized|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , |

Tom Ninness, VP at Cherry Creek Mortgage, joined the show today to discuss Cherry Creek’s success in the Denver area at dominating the mortgage market.  He did not know their percentage market share, but he did know that Cherry Creek was by far the biggest mortgage lender in the area.  He explained that their success stems from a focus on the real estate agent.  They do not chase the refinance opportunity.  They focus on repeat business from Realtors and past home buyers.  The Realtor focus includes providing brown bag lunches where the Realtors can learn about the latest changes in underwriting guidelines or where they can get CPE credit.  They created websites where the Realtors can advertise their open houses.  In fact, over the National Open House weekend, Tom and his team advertised over 100 open houses in the Denver area for their Realtor contacts.  This seems simple and basic, but it works.  Try it. Click PLAY to listen to the podcast of this week’s BlogTalkRadio/Lykken on Lending with Dave Lykken and MBSQuoteline’s Joe Farr: Listen to internet radio with David Lykken on Blog Talk Radio MBSQuoteline supplies the essential market information necessary for effective decision making by Originators when assisting borrowers [...]

In the News – Is HVCC working? Pt. 2: Appraiser’s Point of View

2017-12-20T17:34:18+00:00 June 3rd, 2010|Categories: In The News, Uncategorized|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

So overall, lenders seem to be content with HVCC.  That’s one out of four.  But how about appraisers? The popular method for lenders to comply with HVCC has been to contract with an appraisal management company (AMC) to handle the appraisal process (though some are managing the process internally).  In this arrangement, the appraisal order is placed with the AMC by a non-production person in the lender’s office, the order is assigned on a random basis to one of the appraisers in a pool, and if the appraiser accepts the order, the appraisal goes forward.  Sounds simple enough and workable, right?  Most appraisers I’ve talked to are somewhat ambivalent on the issue.   They’ve lost business from long term, cultivated, relationships but picked up business from others in the random assignment process.  There’s a middleman now (remember the AMC) and middlemen have to get paid.  We’ve all heard of AMCs demanding appraisers to accept a lower fee for reports to be on their panel.  A common refrain is less qualified appraisers that otherwise might not be able to get business on their own, gladly step in on these terms with the result being poorer quality appraisals.  So, appraisers have had to [...]

In the News – Is HVCC working? The Real Answer? Well, It Depends.

2017-12-20T17:34:18+00:00 May 27th, 2010|Categories: In The News, Uncategorized|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

The industry has had a year to operate within HVCC guidelines and the benefits of it pretty clearly depend on just whom you ask. May 1, 2009 marked the implementation of another regulation on the mortgage industry when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac adopted the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) as a result of an agreement between their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), and the New York State Attorney General.  One of many initiatives aimed at improving loan quality in the wake of the subprime market meltdown (and we’re finding quality problems weren’t limited to the subprime market) HVCC’s intent was to ensure appraiser independence in the valuation process, thereby improving appraisal quality.  Doing so, it was reasoned, would better serve lenders because they would get more accurate valuations on which to base their loan decisions.  And borrowers as well would be protected from obligating themselves on loan amounts based on inflated property values. So is HVCC working?  Well, who are you asking?  Basically you have four different players in the origination process impacted by HVCC- the lender (and we’ll include Fannie and Freddie in this category to keep it simpler), the appraiser, the originator and the [...]

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