Special Update: What Will the Fed Do?

2017-12-20T17:34:12+00:00 September 17th, 2013|Categories: Special Update|Tags: , , , , , , , |

What is likely to happen to mortgage rates tomorrow after the Fed statement is released? The best answer is that it will be extremely volatile. The majority view is that the Fed will begin to taper its bond purchase program, but the reaction in the mortgage market will depend on the details. The first question is the size of the reduction. Investors expect the Fed to cut its monthly purchases from $85 billion to around $70 billion. It is also uncertain how the reduction will be split between MBS and Treasuries. We would not be surprised if the Fed cut only Treasury purchases and left MBS purchases unchanged, since several Fed officials have stated that MBS purchases provide a greater boost to the economy than Treasury purchases. In addition, it will be important to hear how the Fed plans to determine future reductions. Of course, there is no guarantee that the Fed will announce a taper on Wednesday at all. Investors have taken positions based on their expectations for the Fed statement, and there likely will be a large reaction tomorrow afternoon following its release.

Special Update: Fed Statement Little Changed

2017-12-20T17:34:12+00:00 July 31st, 2013|Categories: Special Update|Tags: , , , , , , , |

There was very little change in today's Fed statement from the prior statement released on June 19. Investors viewed this as good news for MBS, since the most likely potential changes would have been negative for MBS. For example, some investors thought that the Fed would provide more concrete guidance on the timing to begin to taper its bond purchases. Instead, by avoiding specifics, Fed officials left the timing more open-ended. A decline in the quantity of Fed bond purchases will be negative for MBS.  The primary change to the statement was the Fed's description of the economy. The statement said that the economy is growing at a "modest" pace, while the last statement said that the pace of economic growth was "moderate". The statement noted that Fed officials expect inflation to rise moderately over the medium term, but that there is a risk that it will decline to undesirable levels. The consensus view is still that the Fed will begin to taper its bond purchases in September, unless economic growth weakens significantly. Friday's Employment report will be one of the major upcoming data points which will influence future Fed policy.